Computation of Importance Measures Using Bayesian Networks for the Reliability and Safety of Complex Systems

Document Type : Original Research Article


Mechanical Department of University of Engineering and Technology (UET), Lahore, Pakistan


Modern engineering systems have proven to be quite complex due to the involvement of uncertainties and a number of dependencies among the system components. Shortcoming in the inclusion of such complex features results in the wrong assessment of reliability and safety of the system, ultimately to the incorrect engineering decisions. In this paper, the usefulness of Bayesian Networks (BNs) for achieving improved modeling and reliability and  risk analysis is investigated. The calculation of a number of Importance Measures with use of Fault Tree Analysis as well as BNs is provided for a complicated railway operation problem. The BNs based safety risk model is investigated in terms of quantitative reliability and safety analysis as well as for multi dependencies and uncertainty modeling.


Main Subjects

  • Olde Keizer, M., Flapper, S., Teunter, R., “Condition-based maintenance policies for systems with multiple dependent components: a review, ˮEuropean Journal of Operational Research, 261(2): pp. 405-420, 2017.
  • de Jonge, B., Klingenberg, W., Teunter, R., Tinga, T., “Reducing cost by clustering maintenance activities for multiple critical units, ˮReliability Engineering and System Safety,145: pp. 93-103, 2016.
  • Do, P., Voisin, A., Levrat, E., Iung, B.,“A proactive condition-based maintenance strategy with both perfect and imperfect maintenance actions,ˮ Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 133, pp. 22–32, 2016.
  • Rasay, h., Fallahnezhad, M.S., zaremehjerdi, Y., “Application of multivariate control charts for condition based maintenance, ˮInternational Journal Of Engineering, 31(4): pp. 597-604,2018.
  • Zhang, X., Zeng, J., “A general modeling method for opportunistic maintenance modeling of multi-unit systems, ˮReliability Engineering and System Safety, 140: pp. 176–190, 2015.
  • Ahmadi, R., Newby, M., “Maintenance scheduling of a manufacturing system subjected to deterioration, ˮReliability Engineering & System Safety, 96: pp. 1411-1420, 2011.
  • Zhao, J., Chan, A.H.C., Roberts, C., Madelin, K.B., “Reliability evaluation and optimization of imperfect inspections for a component with multi-defects, ˮ Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 92: pp. 65-73, 2017.
  • Liu, Y., Huang, H.Z.,“Optimal replacement policy for multi-state system under Imperfect Maintenance, ˮIEEE Transactions on Reliability, 59: pp. 483-495, 2011.
  • Zhang, Z., Shen, J., Ma, Y., “Optimal maintenance policy considering imperfect repairs and non-constant probabilities of inspection errors,ˮ Reliability Engineering & System Safety,193: pp. 106-118, 2020.
  • Pham, H., Wang, H.,“Imperfect maintenance, ˮ European journal operation research, 94: pp. 425-38, 1996.
  • Wu, S., Zuo, J.M.,“Linear and nonlinear preventive maintenance models, ˮIEEE Transactions on Reliability, 59(1): pp. 242-9, 2010.
  • Wang, L.,“A survey of maintenance policies of deteriorating systems, ˮ European Journal of Operational Research, 139 (3), pp. 469-489, 2002.
  • Shafiee, M., Finkelstein, M., “A proactive group maintenance policy for continuously monitored deteriorating systems: Application to offshore wind turbines, ˮ Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability, 229 (5): pp. 373-384, 2015.
  • Shafiee, M., Finkelstein, M., Berenguer, C., “ An opportunistic condition-base maintenance policy for offshore wind turbin blades subjected to degradation and environmental shocks, ˮReliability Engineering and System Safety, 142: pp. 463-471, 2015.