Moving from One Site to Multi-Site Vulnerability Studies: Decision Analysis for Trade-off Between Risks and Benefits

Document Type: Original Article

Authors

1 Department of Energy, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy.

2 Department of Mathematics, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy

Abstract

This paper provides a vulnerability study for a gas production site. Decision tree analysis is implemented to provide risk-informed decisions on the maintenance strategies to minimize the unavailability and downtime costs. In this context, the decision analysis assesses the impact on the availability of the plant after having decided to buy some spare parts to mitigate the criticality of some equipment. This will help the decision makers to make an optimal decision before spending their budget on buying the spare parts while they can reliably forecast a maximizedavailability. The decision analysis also will move from onesite approach to the multi-site vulnerability studies. Result concludes a recommendation for the company on deciding the optimum maintenance strategies and provides a list of required spare parts to be bought in advance to reduce the associated risks and costs.

Keywords

Main Subjects


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