Analyzing Reliability of CGS Station by Continuous Time Markov Chains (CTMC)

Document Type : Original Research Article


1 Department of Occupational Health Engineering, Faculty of Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

2 Department of Safety Science, College of Aviation, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Prescott, AZ, 86301, USA

3 Robertson Safety Institute (RSI), Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Prescott, AZ, 86301, USA



    Improving the system's reliability is one way to achieve a secure system. City Gas Station (CGS) has a key role in the timely and safe supply of Natural gas (NG) to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. With complexities inherent in systems, having a proper and all-embracing model of the entirety of a system is not readily possible. The continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model is regarded as a great help in communicating, comparing, and integrating partial system models. In this study, we have exploited CTMC for reliability analysis in CGS stations. The CTMC model can solve both time-dependent and stationary state probabilities. Therefore, it can potentially develop the state enumeration method into a sequential one. Implementing this procedure leads to identifying critical components and failure probability, eventually enhancing the station's reliability. Additionally, some suggestions are presented for optimizing the performance of the station.


Main Subjects

Volume 4, Issue 2
December 2021
Pages 91-96
  • Receive Date: 29 June 2022
  • Revise Date: 05 September 2022
  • Accept Date: 05 September 2022
  • First Publish Date: 05 September 2022