A Combined AHP-PROMETHEE Approach for Intelligent Risk Prediction of Leak in a Storage Tank

Document Type: Original Article

Authors

1 Systems Engineering Research Group Anglesea Building Anglesea Road

2 Systems Engineering Research

3 Systems Engineering Research University of Portsmouth

Abstract

This paper describes the use of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE) method for predicting risk of leakage in a storage tank. This is the first time AHP and PROMETHEE have been used in this way. Important decisions about day to day operations are continually made in a petroleum environment. Storage tanks in refineries contain large volumes of flammable and hazardous liquids. Decision processes need to evaluate and select alternatives with a higher probability of resulting in a hazard, among many different alternatives. The new model described in this paper will aid decision makers to predict which tank is likely to develop a leak and determine what criteria (source of risk) could result in a leak. Although the case study deals with a specific risk prediction problem, the combination of AHP and PROMETHEE methods can be applied to other decision problems.

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